The narcissist’s playbook: how autocrats manipulate fear and power

In a world filled with uncertainty, economic crises, and geopolitical conflicts, authoritarian leaders are gaining more power. The psychological reasons behind this development run deep. Populist and autocratic politicians know how to use people’s fears and insecurities to their advantage. They create enemies, claim to be the only ones who can protect their nation, and offer simple answers to complex problems. Fear of migration, cultural change, ethnic conflicts, or economic decline is not just exploited by these leaders—it is deliberately intensified.

One of the most common tactics autocrats use is reversing victim and perpetrator roles. For example, Russia justifies its war on Ukraine by portraying Ukraine as the aggressor. Similar strategies can be seen in other countries where leaders construct enemy images to unite their followers and silence opposition. They create a “us versus them” mentality, which divides societies and prevents constructive dialogue. People who feel threatened tend to look for strong leadership. Psychological research shows that in times of crisis, individuals prefer clear, simple explanations rather than dealing with the complexity of reality. This is exactly what autocrats offer: a world where problems are blamed on outsiders, “traitors,” or minority groups, while they themselves present as strong leaders defending the nation from danger.

Many autocratic leaders show clear narcissistic traits. They believe they are destined to lead, exaggerate their abilities, and see criticism as a personal attack. Their need for admiration and control can lead to a dangerous detachment from reality. This sense of superiority is often coupled with paranoia—a deep-seated fear that their power is constantly under threat. They become obsessed with loyalty tests, purging anyone who questions their authority, and constructing elaborate conspiracy theories to justify their repressive actions. Their paranoia makes them see enemies everywhere, both real and imagined, leading to erratic and often brutal decisions. When their power is questioned, they react with hostility, repression, or even violence. Their mood can shift between extreme self-confidence and deep insecurity, making their leadership unpredictable. This combination of grandiosity and paranoia leads to a fragile yet aggressive form of governance, where decisions are made based on personal insecurities rather than rational political strategy. They surround themselves with people who reinforce their beliefs and eliminate those who challenge them, creating an environment where they are no longer confronted with reality. They believe they are destined to lead, exaggerate their abilities, and see criticism as a personal attack. Their need for admiration and control can lead to a dangerous detachment from reality. When their power is questioned, they react with hostility, repression, or even violence. Their mood can shift between extreme self-confidence and deep insecurity, making their leadership unpredictable. They surround themselves with people who reinforce their beliefs and eliminate those who challenge them, creating an environment where they are no longer confronted with reality.

Another reason why authoritarian leadership is attractive lies in historical trauma. Nations that have experienced war, oppression, or the loss of past power—such as Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union or Turkey after the end of the Ottoman Empire—often develop a strong nationalistic identity. Leaders use this trauma to justify authoritarian policies, presenting themselves as protectors who will restore the nation’s former glory. The past is manipulated to control the present.

At an individual level, authoritarian thinking is often shaped by childhood experiences. Studies show that people raised in strict, authoritarian environments are more likely to support strong, controlling leaders. This is especially true in societies where physical punishment and hierarchical structures are common. The result is a dangerous cycle where autocratic values are passed from one generation to the next.

The real danger comes when autocrats control military forces, intelligence agencies, and even nuclear weapons. Their paranoia about losing power can make them irrational and impulsive. Instead of adapting to criticism or compromise, they often escalate conflicts to maintain control. The moment they feel their power slipping, they become even more dangerous—oppressing protests, imprisoning opponents, or launching military aggression to distract from their internal problems.

History shows that autocrats become most unpredictable when their rule is threatened. To maintain power, they are willing to take extreme measures, regardless of the cost to their own people or global stability. If societies want to break this cycle, they must focus on long-term change. Education is key—people must learn to recognize manipulation and propaganda. Economic security and social stability also help reduce fear and, with it, the appeal of authoritarianism.

In the end, it is up to societies to decide their future. Democracies do not collapse overnight—they erode gradually, as authoritarian ideas become normalized. If people want to protect open and diverse societies, they must actively push back against these tendencies. One thing is clear: autocrats do not wait for power to come to them—they take it, and they will not give it up easily.

Dr. Jan Ilhan Kizilhan is a psychologist, author and publisher, an expert in psychotraumatology, trauma, terror and war, transcultural psychiatry, psychotherapy and migration.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
 

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