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ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - United States influence in the Middle East will be restored when President-elect Donald Trump returns to power in Washington, a former envoy told Rudaw.
“I think the reason we had significant calm in the Middle East during President Trump's administration is because there was tremendous deterrence. People took him seriously, his unpredictability is very much a super power of his and people were afraid to step out of line. That fell apart with President Biden and that’s terribly unfortunate,” Jason Greenblatt, who was Trump’s Middle East envoy during his first term in office, told Rudaw on Monday at the Doha Forum.
“I don't want to blame President Biden for the entire mess. That would be unfair but part of the reason we are in this mess is America's deterrence was weakened. We looked not strong, we looked like we didn’t care. I don't think we’re going to see that under President Trump, I think that people are going to fall in line,” he added.
The fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has caused a political earthquake in the Middle East, the full impact of which remains to be seen. Iran’s regional alliance is weakened and Israel has been emboldened.
Greenblatt predicted Trump will not get involved in Syria.
“President Trump will stand up for American allies and friends, but Syria has not been an American ally and friend,” said Greenblatt.
Trump himself has said that he would stay out of Syria.
“In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved,” he said in a message on Truth Social.
When asked about Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel group that led the offensive that toppled Assad, Greenblatt responded that they are on the US terrorist watch list and compared it to other groups on that list like Hamas and Hezbollah. They “are all the same, they want to destroy the region,” he said.
He did acknowledge that HTS has made positive comments about respecting minority communities in Syria, but warned that “the neighbourhood better watch out because they’re dangerous and until we know who they really are, Israel and its neighbors could be at risk.”
“I think they [HTS] are making a mistake if they think they can play around, especially when it comes to Israel. What they saw Israel do to Hamas, what they saw Israel do to Hezbollah, Israel could do to them very quickly,” he added, warning that they should tread carefully now that Trump is returning to the White House.
The interim leadership in Damascus have said that the new Syrian state will guarantee the rights of all communities in the diverse country.
Greenblatt said that the Syrian people have been suffering for years and they could be facing a new chapter, depending on Iran's influence.
“Iran should mind its own business and not make trouble around its borders because more and more the region completely understands that so much of the turmoil in this region is Iran driven. If Iran looks inward, focuses on its country, focuses on its people, focuses on its economy, they could have a beautiful, bright future,” said Greenblatt.
According to Greenblatt, Trump would like to expand on the Abraham Accords that saw four countries - the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Bahrain, and Morocco - normalize ties with Israel, but said the Middle East should only ask the US for support, not leadership.
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