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ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The best path forward for Syria is for its key actors to collaborate in shaping a shared future, a conflict expert told Rudaw on Sunday, as the country celebrates the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime, days after rebels launched a blistering offensive.
“The best outcome for the people of Syria is that the major forces in the country cooperate with each other to build some kind of future together,” Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute told Rudaw’s Nwenar Fatih on the sidelines of the Doha forum.
Syria’s civil war dramatically reignited late last month when a coalition of rebels led by the jihadist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a blistering offensive against the Syrian army, seizing the northern city of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and culminating their victory by capturing the capital Damascus as rebels said Assad fled the country, ending over five decades of Baathist rule.
“It is not just the state that is broken, it is the country that is broken,” Smith added.
Syria continues to grapple with instability and insecurity, as recent escalations have displaced thousands. The country, ravaged by a civil war that began in 2011 following uprisings against the now-dethroned Assad, has seen hundreds of thousands killed and millions left in need of humanitarian assistance.
The recent rapid advances of rebel forces toward Damascus caught many by surprise.
"I didn’t think it would be this fast," Smith said, "The speed with which they got from Homs to Damascus is almost like driving down the highway."
The Assad regime's fragility was evident, with its survival hinging on international support, Smith noted, adding that key backers of the regime had significantly pulled back.
Smith said that Iran may either “double down” on supporting its affiliates or contemplate the “recalibration of their strategy” in Syria.
Iran has long considered Syria a crucial ally, providing military and economic support to the Assad regime. The country has also served as a strategic base for Tehran to bolster its allies, countering the United States, Israel, and regional rivals.
On Sunday, the White House said that US President Joe Biden was following the “extraordinary” events in Syria.
“I think there will be little change from what the Biden administration has been doing,” Smith said, regarding future US foreign policy under President-elect Donald Trump towards Syria and the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria.
Kurds have greatly expanded the territory under their control to cover most of oil-rich Deir ez-Zor province in the east after Syrian government forces and their pro-Iran allies withdrew to redeploy in other areas where the regime is fighting rebels.
Political parties in north and northeast Syria (Rojava) on Sunday urged the public to “protect the achievements” of the Kurdish-led administration, emphasizing the need for comprehensive national dialogue in Syria, amid attacks by Syrian National Army (SNA) militias on Kurdish forces in the northern city of Manbij.
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