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Analysis
A busy bazaar and park sit at the foot of Erbil's historic citadel. Photo: Karwan Faidhi Dri/Rudaw/file
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Months after the term of the Kurdistan Region’s parliament, government and presidency expired, the fate of the upcoming general vote remains unclear due to political and legal obstacles.
Disputes between Kurdish political parties, especially the ruling ones, left the parliament with no option but to make a last minute extension of its own age by one year late last year, but a federal court ruling cancelled that decision. With the election in limbo, many observers are once again questioning the health of the Kurdistan Region’s democracy.
Kurdish officials often tout their superiority to Baghdad pertaining to human rights and the Region’s democracy is undeniably unique in a totalitarian Middle East, but concerns about limits put on basic rights such as freedom of speech often dominate reports by monitors. There are fears that another postponement of the already delayed vote could jeopardise the hard-won gains that Kurds in the northern Iraq enclave have achieved over the past three decades.
Kurdistan Region held its first parliamentary election on May 19, 1992. The legislature was then known as the Kurdish National Assembly. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won that first vote with a narrow victory. It has stayed victorious in all subsequent elections with its rival the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) usually coming second. Only in 2009 did the electorate deliver a surprise, handing second place to the newly-established Change Movement (Gorran) led by an ex-PUK veteran politician.
Despite the predictability of election results and allegations of vote rigging, many opposition and smaller parties have hoped to use their handfuls of seats in the legislature to put pressure on the ruling parties to make reforms. The New Generation movement, which is the main opposition party in the Region at the moment, is among the parties growing fast and expecting to improve their performance in the upcoming vote.
However, the Kurdish region has a history of delaying elections that should take place every four years. The Region has held only five general elections in more than three decades. The nineties is mostly seen as a black history for Kurds due to the civil war between Kurdish armed groups. Because of the war, the second election was not held until 2005. The 2017 poll was postponed by one year due to the Region’s failed independence bid.
Last year, the parliament extended its term for a year. What angers many is the fact that the legislature used a lame excuse - disputes between political parties on how the poll should be conducted and how many seats minorities should be given. The ruling KDP and PUK have traded blame for the postponement.
Kurdistan Region has held provincial elections only twice: in 2005 and 2014. KDP came first and PUK second in both votes.
Under pressure from the international community, the Kurdistan Region Presidency earlier this year set November 18 as the date for the parliamentary election. That date is already a year behind schedule, but it is almost impossible for the vote to be held this year at all.
Sticking point
After months of talks with other political parties at the start of the year, the KDP agreed to make compromises on several points related to how the elections should be held, but they failed to agree on the number of seats allocated to minorities.
The Kurdistan Parliament consists of 111 seats, with 11 of them dedicated for minorities under a quota system. Turkmens have five seats, Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Syriacs have five, and Armenians one. Some political parties have claimed that these seats are exploited by the KDP, which is accused of directing security forces to vote for the minority candidates it favours. The KDP has denied the claims.
Rewaz Fayaq, who held the post of parliament speaker, said in April that the minority seats are a sticking point.
After it was unable to reach an acceptable compromise with the other political parties, the KDP, with the help of the minorities, passed a controversial bill in the parliament in May to reactivate the Kurdish electoral body and order it to make election preparations. This drew the ire of the PUK, which wanted a deal on the minority seats before going to the polls.
Later in the same month, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ruled against the Kurdish parliament’s self-extension, deeming it “unconstitutional.” This meant that any laws passed after the extension would be invalid and automatically ended the mandate of the Region’s Independent High Electoral and Referendum Commission. The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) later said it would supervise the vote.
Ball in Baghdad’s court
Despite Kurdish officials’ opposition to the Iraqi court’s ruling, the Region had no option but to obey it and the Kurdistan Parliament was dissolved.
Although the IHEC has expressed its readiness to supervise the election, it has hinted that there could be another postponement. Iraq is holding provincial elections on December 18, which do not apply to the Kurdistan Region, and the federal electoral body has said this vote is its number one priority.
Omar Mohammed, head of the IHEC, told Rudaw last month that it needs at least six months to hold the Region’s election and that they cannot do both votes at the same time.
And there is another issue: the Iraqi electoral body’s mandate is expiring early next year. It is not clear if it will be renewed or a new team of commissioners will be appointed.
Based on these circumstances, it is safe to assume that the Kurdistan Region Presidency may need to set a new election date.
Emad Jameel, spokesperson for the IHEC, told Rudaw English on Friday that it is not possible to hold the Kurdish vote on time and that they will need at least six months for preparations after a new date is set.
“The commission is not able to hold this election on the date set by the KRG which coincides with the provincial vote,” he said, pointing to procedures like updating the list of voters and registration of political parties and monitors. “All this requires time.”
He also said that they are in constant contact with the relevant authorities in the Region regarding the vote. He too is unsure about IHEC’s mandate, saying the parliament could opt to extend it or select a new team of commissioners.
Aram Jamal is an elections expert who has closely covered most of the polls in the Region and Iraq. He agrees that it is impossible to hold the Kurdish vote this year and suggested that a six-month extension of the IHEC mandate could save the day, but noted this has never been done before.
Efforts to emerge from turmoil
KDP and PUK have always feuded, despite various agreements to share power, but their relations have worsened in recent years, escalating to a point where both were acting against the other’s interests in Baghdad, especially during federal budget discussions earlier this year.
During the Kurdish parliament’s discussion on renewing the electoral body’s mandate in May, a brawl erupted between KDP and PUK parliamentarians after the former steamrolled through its rival’s objections. Later, both parties issued contradictory statements about what happened that day.
An official letter by the deputy speaker Hemin Hawrami, a KDP member, stated that the Independent High Electoral and Referendum Commission had been reactivated but his superior, Speaker Fayaq from the PUK, stated otherwise in a separate letter sent to the commission.
The commission, led by the KDP, said it would follow Hawrami's letter and kick off election preparations.
The dissolution of the Kurdish parliament could pave the way for fresh efforts by both ruling parties to resolve their issues, but with the tranquillity of the Kurdistan Region hanging in the balance, Jamal said that it is best not to hold elections right away if there is a possibility they could cause unrest.
“Elections are meant to renew political life and resolve tensions. Therefore, if the elections cannot resolve tensions between the main political parties, the polls would be a means to deepen these issues,” he maintained.
The expert also said that the Kurdish political parties “do not care about legitimacy at all,” pointing out that they are used to postponing elections. “Parliament's terms have been extended eight times so far.”
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani in mid-June invited the IHEC to Erbil, hosting a meeting that was also attended by United Nations Special Representative for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
“President Barzani stressed the need to hold the Kurdistan Region’s elections as soon as possible. In this regard, he expressed the readiness of the Region’s presidency, government and all relevant authorities to make the process successful,” read a statement from the Kurdistan Region Presidency.
The UNAMI head and experts said they support Barzani’s efforts to hold the poll on time, and the IHEC delegation expressed their readiness to hold the vote “as per law and after the provision of needs as well as an agreement on a suitable time,” added the statement.
During her latest briefing to the UN Security Council on May 18, Hennis-Plasschaert warned that further postponement in the Kurdistan Region’s general elections could be “detrimental to public trust."
Now, the ball is in the court of the federal government as all eyes are on the IHEC to kick off preparations for the vote, in coordination with the Kurdistan Region which should cover all the expenses.
Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of the New Generation movement, has predicted that if the election is not held this year, it could be postponed to 2026.
“This is due to the Iraqi Commission's expiration in early 2024, followed by the election of a new commission in 2025 which… will oversee the Iraqi National elections. Only after that they will be able to oversee the elections in the KRI [Kurdistan Region of Iraq]. Until then, it will be challenging for anything called the Kurdistan Region to survive if we do not act now to preserve it,” he said in a tweet on June 15.
Kurds fought successive Iraqi regimes for more than half a century, resulting in the death of tens of thousands, from Peshmerga fighters to villagers. Saddan Hussein’s regime destroyed countless Kurdish villages, displaced thousands of people to southern Iraq and caused the exodus of a huge number of Kurds to neighbouring Iran and Turkey.
The month of March contains the anniversaries of many key events in Kurdish history, but the massacre of thousands in Halabja that took place on March 16, 1988 reminds us how vital the 1991 uprisings against the Iraqi regime were in the first and second weeks of the month.
All the suffering paid off when Kurds, with the support of the international community, established their first parliament and government in 1992.
Is it worth jeopardizing these hard-won achievements for partisan goals?
Disputes between Kurdish political parties, especially the ruling ones, left the parliament with no option but to make a last minute extension of its own age by one year late last year, but a federal court ruling cancelled that decision. With the election in limbo, many observers are once again questioning the health of the Kurdistan Region’s democracy.
Kurdish officials often tout their superiority to Baghdad pertaining to human rights and the Region’s democracy is undeniably unique in a totalitarian Middle East, but concerns about limits put on basic rights such as freedom of speech often dominate reports by monitors. There are fears that another postponement of the already delayed vote could jeopardise the hard-won gains that Kurds in the northern Iraq enclave have achieved over the past three decades.
Kurdistan Region held its first parliamentary election on May 19, 1992. The legislature was then known as the Kurdish National Assembly. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won that first vote with a narrow victory. It has stayed victorious in all subsequent elections with its rival the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) usually coming second. Only in 2009 did the electorate deliver a surprise, handing second place to the newly-established Change Movement (Gorran) led by an ex-PUK veteran politician.
Despite the predictability of election results and allegations of vote rigging, many opposition and smaller parties have hoped to use their handfuls of seats in the legislature to put pressure on the ruling parties to make reforms. The New Generation movement, which is the main opposition party in the Region at the moment, is among the parties growing fast and expecting to improve their performance in the upcoming vote.
However, the Kurdish region has a history of delaying elections that should take place every four years. The Region has held only five general elections in more than three decades. The nineties is mostly seen as a black history for Kurds due to the civil war between Kurdish armed groups. Because of the war, the second election was not held until 2005. The 2017 poll was postponed by one year due to the Region’s failed independence bid.
Last year, the parliament extended its term for a year. What angers many is the fact that the legislature used a lame excuse - disputes between political parties on how the poll should be conducted and how many seats minorities should be given. The ruling KDP and PUK have traded blame for the postponement.
Kurdistan Region has held provincial elections only twice: in 2005 and 2014. KDP came first and PUK second in both votes.
Under pressure from the international community, the Kurdistan Region Presidency earlier this year set November 18 as the date for the parliamentary election. That date is already a year behind schedule, but it is almost impossible for the vote to be held this year at all.
Sticking point
After months of talks with other political parties at the start of the year, the KDP agreed to make compromises on several points related to how the elections should be held, but they failed to agree on the number of seats allocated to minorities.
The Kurdistan Parliament consists of 111 seats, with 11 of them dedicated for minorities under a quota system. Turkmens have five seats, Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Syriacs have five, and Armenians one. Some political parties have claimed that these seats are exploited by the KDP, which is accused of directing security forces to vote for the minority candidates it favours. The KDP has denied the claims.
Rewaz Fayaq, who held the post of parliament speaker, said in April that the minority seats are a sticking point.
After it was unable to reach an acceptable compromise with the other political parties, the KDP, with the help of the minorities, passed a controversial bill in the parliament in May to reactivate the Kurdish electoral body and order it to make election preparations. This drew the ire of the PUK, which wanted a deal on the minority seats before going to the polls.
Later in the same month, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ruled against the Kurdish parliament’s self-extension, deeming it “unconstitutional.” This meant that any laws passed after the extension would be invalid and automatically ended the mandate of the Region’s Independent High Electoral and Referendum Commission. The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) later said it would supervise the vote.
Ball in Baghdad’s court
Despite Kurdish officials’ opposition to the Iraqi court’s ruling, the Region had no option but to obey it and the Kurdistan Parliament was dissolved.
Although the IHEC has expressed its readiness to supervise the election, it has hinted that there could be another postponement. Iraq is holding provincial elections on December 18, which do not apply to the Kurdistan Region, and the federal electoral body has said this vote is its number one priority.
Omar Mohammed, head of the IHEC, told Rudaw last month that it needs at least six months to hold the Region’s election and that they cannot do both votes at the same time.
And there is another issue: the Iraqi electoral body’s mandate is expiring early next year. It is not clear if it will be renewed or a new team of commissioners will be appointed.
Based on these circumstances, it is safe to assume that the Kurdistan Region Presidency may need to set a new election date.
Emad Jameel, spokesperson for the IHEC, told Rudaw English on Friday that it is not possible to hold the Kurdish vote on time and that they will need at least six months for preparations after a new date is set.
“The commission is not able to hold this election on the date set by the KRG which coincides with the provincial vote,” he said, pointing to procedures like updating the list of voters and registration of political parties and monitors. “All this requires time.”
He also said that they are in constant contact with the relevant authorities in the Region regarding the vote. He too is unsure about IHEC’s mandate, saying the parliament could opt to extend it or select a new team of commissioners.
Aram Jamal is an elections expert who has closely covered most of the polls in the Region and Iraq. He agrees that it is impossible to hold the Kurdish vote this year and suggested that a six-month extension of the IHEC mandate could save the day, but noted this has never been done before.
Efforts to emerge from turmoil
KDP and PUK have always feuded, despite various agreements to share power, but their relations have worsened in recent years, escalating to a point where both were acting against the other’s interests in Baghdad, especially during federal budget discussions earlier this year.
During the Kurdish parliament’s discussion on renewing the electoral body’s mandate in May, a brawl erupted between KDP and PUK parliamentarians after the former steamrolled through its rival’s objections. Later, both parties issued contradictory statements about what happened that day.
An official letter by the deputy speaker Hemin Hawrami, a KDP member, stated that the Independent High Electoral and Referendum Commission had been reactivated but his superior, Speaker Fayaq from the PUK, stated otherwise in a separate letter sent to the commission.
The commission, led by the KDP, said it would follow Hawrami's letter and kick off election preparations.
The dissolution of the Kurdish parliament could pave the way for fresh efforts by both ruling parties to resolve their issues, but with the tranquillity of the Kurdistan Region hanging in the balance, Jamal said that it is best not to hold elections right away if there is a possibility they could cause unrest.
“Elections are meant to renew political life and resolve tensions. Therefore, if the elections cannot resolve tensions between the main political parties, the polls would be a means to deepen these issues,” he maintained.
The expert also said that the Kurdish political parties “do not care about legitimacy at all,” pointing out that they are used to postponing elections. “Parliament's terms have been extended eight times so far.”
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani in mid-June invited the IHEC to Erbil, hosting a meeting that was also attended by United Nations Special Representative for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
“President Barzani stressed the need to hold the Kurdistan Region’s elections as soon as possible. In this regard, he expressed the readiness of the Region’s presidency, government and all relevant authorities to make the process successful,” read a statement from the Kurdistan Region Presidency.
The UNAMI head and experts said they support Barzani’s efforts to hold the poll on time, and the IHEC delegation expressed their readiness to hold the vote “as per law and after the provision of needs as well as an agreement on a suitable time,” added the statement.
During her latest briefing to the UN Security Council on May 18, Hennis-Plasschaert warned that further postponement in the Kurdistan Region’s general elections could be “detrimental to public trust."
Now, the ball is in the court of the federal government as all eyes are on the IHEC to kick off preparations for the vote, in coordination with the Kurdistan Region which should cover all the expenses.
Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of the New Generation movement, has predicted that if the election is not held this year, it could be postponed to 2026.
“This is due to the Iraqi Commission's expiration in early 2024, followed by the election of a new commission in 2025 which… will oversee the Iraqi National elections. Only after that they will be able to oversee the elections in the KRI [Kurdistan Region of Iraq]. Until then, it will be challenging for anything called the Kurdistan Region to survive if we do not act now to preserve it,” he said in a tweet on June 15.
Kurds fought successive Iraqi regimes for more than half a century, resulting in the death of tens of thousands, from Peshmerga fighters to villagers. Saddan Hussein’s regime destroyed countless Kurdish villages, displaced thousands of people to southern Iraq and caused the exodus of a huge number of Kurds to neighbouring Iran and Turkey.
The month of March contains the anniversaries of many key events in Kurdish history, but the massacre of thousands in Halabja that took place on March 16, 1988 reminds us how vital the 1991 uprisings against the Iraqi regime were in the first and second weeks of the month.
All the suffering paid off when Kurds, with the support of the international community, established their first parliament and government in 1992.
Is it worth jeopardizing these hard-won achievements for partisan goals?
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