Analysis
US presidential candidates former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamala Harris. Combined photo: AFP
With less than 48 hours until the US election to determine whether front-runner Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will sit in the White House for the next four years, how could the vote impact global conflicts, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East?
"We don't really know who will be the next president. But both presidents will have to address both short-term challenges and long-term challenges," Klaus Larres, professor of history and international affairs at the University of North Carolina, told Rudaw ahead of the vote.
With Vice President Harris re-affirming US support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion and former President Trump vowing to negotiate an end to the war, the 32-plus months of bloodshed have seen a UN-estimated tens of thousands of people killed and 3.7 million people displaced.
"Regarding the short-term challenges, I would say, it's Russia and the war in Ukraine. Which is still brutally continuing and needs to be overcome at some point, hopefully soon," Larres added.
Harris said during the presidential debate with Trump in September that if Russia wins, "Putin would be sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe ... starting with Poland."
The former president has been more direct about his approach by ending the war "on day one" by brokering peace between Moscow and Kyiv.
Meanwhile in Gaza, more than 43,341 Palestinians have been killed amid Israeli retaliation following Hamas' unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, that killed more than 1,206 people and captured 251 people.
“What's going on in the Middle East, in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond needs to be resolved and can't continue,” Professor Larres added.
Both Trump and Harris have reaffirmed "unwavering support" for Israel, and have condemned the October 7 attack on Israel, but neither have provided a clear solution to end the war and its risks of engulfing the region.
Harris said that the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September was “a measure of justice,” emphasizing that the way to achieve “lasting stability in the region” is through diplomacy.
Despite calling on the war to end, Trump has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "get his victory" over Hamas.
"This is a long US history of presidents trying to ignore the Middle East, but then the Middle East doesn't ignore them," said Patrick Clawson, Morningstar senior fellow and research counselor at The Washington Institute.
Similar to President Joe Biden, Harris has pushed for a ceasefire deal to end the Gaza conflict that is conditioned on the release of all Israeli hostages.
"The president finds that his time in office becomes consumed by crises in the Middle East." Clawson added, cautioning that this "could happen again."
Trump's actions during his first term of presidency further deepened tensions by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, causing outrage among Muslims. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” failed to provide a two-state solution.
With both candidates within a percentage point or two in most national polls, Washington's exact position on policies affecting conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East is yet to be determined.
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