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LONDON, UK — The two major British party leaders could be gone or crippled within weeks. Prime Minister David Cameron is on the ropes thanks to the leaked Panama Papers revealing his father's tax affairs, being asked about his own, and mishandling the media in a way that made him look shifty for many.
Public confidence has also been shaken by the possible loss of Britain's steel industry, whether the government was on top of the issue, and is doing enough to save it. A freewheeling capitalism that benefits the few not the many is more contested.
Cameron's tax issue may fade and we will see what happens about thousands of skilled steel jobs in Britain but Cameron has taken a hit and that may undermine his credibility in leading the campaign for the UK to remain in the European Union (EU) in the referendum on 23 June. Polls put the remain and leave camps roughly even but the expectation was that the status quo should have been well ahead at this stage.
If Cameron loses the referendum, it is difficult to see that he can stay for three days let alone the three years he has planned and there will be a contest to replace him over the summer. The heir apparent, George Osborne has been badly damaged by a series of errors and the crown could well go to the current Major of London, Boris Johnson, who has joined the leave camp.
Johnson finishes his mayoral term when his successor is elected on 5 May. London is a Labour city but Boris managed to win two terms through his larger than life personality and an ability to exceed his own party's appeal. The Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith had been a big noise who increased his own parliamentary majority and made alliances with people across the political spectrum. But he is trailing the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan, the son of a Pakistan bus driver, who has clearly distanced himself from the current Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
But Khan's victory will be claimed as a victory for Corbyn and may minimise the impact of losses or insufficient gains elsewhere. It could also be the beginning of the end for Corbyn who will then face a London Labour Mayor with his own personal mandate - the biggest in Europe after the French and Portuguese Presidents. Khan could show what a post-Corbyn party could look like, and do on bread and butter issues such as housing and transport.
Cameron losing some of his lustre should allow Corbyn to shine by comparison and his personal standing has improved but so far the political benefit seems paltry. If Corbyn cannot prosper in this vacuum, it may embolden more urgent sharpening of the knives.
Corbyn remains popular with rank and file party members but is backed by only one-tenth of his MPs, who doubt he can win an election. Corbyn and his supporters will seek to consolidate his leadership, or that of a similarly hard-left successor, by changing internal rules. If Corbyn's opponents delay striking they will find it harder and some are clearly considering a coup.
If it triggers a re-run of the last election and Corbyn is on the ballot paper - the rules are unclear - he will be endorsed again and probably by a larger majority. But advocates of a challenge believe they must provoke debate, even if it initially fails, in order to build momentum for another political assassination attempt.
Or they could simply replace him as head of the Parliamentary Labour Party. A new figurehead could be recognised as the official leader of the Opposition, speak for it at Prime Minister's Questions, and receive official state funding of about £6 million for research staff. There would be a bloodbath in the wider party but some argue that a clash between those who spurn normal electoral politics versus moderate MPs and members is inevitable. And that losing some of the new members will not matter that much.
Such nuclear options will be small beer if Britain decides to leave the EU. Cameron will be blamed but so will Corbyn, who has been a long-term Eurosceptic and has yet to make a forceful case for staying, which is what most party members want. Labour votes are also crucial to staying but they don't seem to understand that Labour is for staying. If Corbyn is held responsible for failing to mobilise Labour voters to stay, all hell will let loose at the same time as deep Tory rifts come to the fore. My gut instinct is that Britain will decide to stay in the EU but neither Cameron nor Corbyn can be sure they will be leaders for as long as they want.
Public confidence has also been shaken by the possible loss of Britain's steel industry, whether the government was on top of the issue, and is doing enough to save it. A freewheeling capitalism that benefits the few not the many is more contested.
Cameron's tax issue may fade and we will see what happens about thousands of skilled steel jobs in Britain but Cameron has taken a hit and that may undermine his credibility in leading the campaign for the UK to remain in the European Union (EU) in the referendum on 23 June. Polls put the remain and leave camps roughly even but the expectation was that the status quo should have been well ahead at this stage.
If Cameron loses the referendum, it is difficult to see that he can stay for three days let alone the three years he has planned and there will be a contest to replace him over the summer. The heir apparent, George Osborne has been badly damaged by a series of errors and the crown could well go to the current Major of London, Boris Johnson, who has joined the leave camp.
Johnson finishes his mayoral term when his successor is elected on 5 May. London is a Labour city but Boris managed to win two terms through his larger than life personality and an ability to exceed his own party's appeal. The Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith had been a big noise who increased his own parliamentary majority and made alliances with people across the political spectrum. But he is trailing the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan, the son of a Pakistan bus driver, who has clearly distanced himself from the current Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
But Khan's victory will be claimed as a victory for Corbyn and may minimise the impact of losses or insufficient gains elsewhere. It could also be the beginning of the end for Corbyn who will then face a London Labour Mayor with his own personal mandate - the biggest in Europe after the French and Portuguese Presidents. Khan could show what a post-Corbyn party could look like, and do on bread and butter issues such as housing and transport.
Cameron losing some of his lustre should allow Corbyn to shine by comparison and his personal standing has improved but so far the political benefit seems paltry. If Corbyn cannot prosper in this vacuum, it may embolden more urgent sharpening of the knives.
Corbyn remains popular with rank and file party members but is backed by only one-tenth of his MPs, who doubt he can win an election. Corbyn and his supporters will seek to consolidate his leadership, or that of a similarly hard-left successor, by changing internal rules. If Corbyn's opponents delay striking they will find it harder and some are clearly considering a coup.
If it triggers a re-run of the last election and Corbyn is on the ballot paper - the rules are unclear - he will be endorsed again and probably by a larger majority. But advocates of a challenge believe they must provoke debate, even if it initially fails, in order to build momentum for another political assassination attempt.
Or they could simply replace him as head of the Parliamentary Labour Party. A new figurehead could be recognised as the official leader of the Opposition, speak for it at Prime Minister's Questions, and receive official state funding of about £6 million for research staff. There would be a bloodbath in the wider party but some argue that a clash between those who spurn normal electoral politics versus moderate MPs and members is inevitable. And that losing some of the new members will not matter that much.
Such nuclear options will be small beer if Britain decides to leave the EU. Cameron will be blamed but so will Corbyn, who has been a long-term Eurosceptic and has yet to make a forceful case for staying, which is what most party members want. Labour votes are also crucial to staying but they don't seem to understand that Labour is for staying. If Corbyn is held responsible for failing to mobilise Labour voters to stay, all hell will let loose at the same time as deep Tory rifts come to the fore. My gut instinct is that Britain will decide to stay in the EU but neither Cameron nor Corbyn can be sure they will be leaders for as long as they want.
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