Kurds in Syria could help US understand HTS: Former Trump advisor

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that the Kurds in Syria are in a position to help the US gauge the current stances of Syria’s de facto ruling group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has previously been designated as a terrorist organization.

During an interview with Rudaw, Bolton spoke on the Syrian situation in general, the position of the Kurds, Turkey’s intentions, and their next move when President-elect Donald Trump assumes the position in the Oval Office.

“Kurds in Syria may be in a better position to help us understand exactly where this HTS group is now aiming, what its objectives are,” Bolton said.

“If we can find that out and get some assessment done, of whether they're credible when they say they've given up terrorism,” he added.

HTS is the former Syrian branch of al-Qaeda and the prominent force among dozens of rebel factions. The group has long controlled a rebel enclave in the northwestern province of Idlib. It has been internationally recognized as a terrorist organization.

Following the regime’s collapse, the HTS formed a transitional government headed by Mohammed al-Bashir, set to remain in power until March 2025.

Bolton also said that the possibility of defeat or the dissolution of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would benefit the Syrian National Army (SNA), a group backed by Turkey, and will further consolidate “Turkish occupation of northeast Syria, maybe even sovereignty over it.”

At the start of Syria’s civil war, Kurds in the northeast carved out an area of control, partnering with international forces to battle the Islamic State (ISIS) and building their own armed force and civic administration. 


The following is Rudaw’s interview with John Bolton:

Rudaw: Mr Bolton, thank you for being with us, especially during these sensitive times with new developments in the Middle East. I read your latest article in which you're not very optimistic about Syria's future. Why do you believe Syria's future isn't promising?

John Bolton: Well, glad to be with you. I think it's certainly a plus that the Assad regime has fallen. There's no doubt about that. And it's a major setback to Iran, which I think is the principal threat to peace and security in the Middle East. In Syria, however, the HTS group, which is in control in Damascus, and its Turkish allies really still concern me quite a bit. We don't know whether I think we need to be very cautious before we accept their claims at face value that they've renounced terrorism. But it's not just HTS that's a problem. It's the involvement of Turkey, certainly with a very significant presence in Idlib and northwest Syria. We don't know exactly what their cooperation was with HTS on its efforts to overthrow Assad, but My guess is it could be significant. And we know as well that they've already started to move in northeastern Syria against Manbij, where an agreement was reached for the Syrian defense forces to withdraw. But Turkey itself, we know from history, has aspirations to take control of much of northern Syria, right across their entire southern border. and pose a significant threat to the SDF forces, Kurdish forces in the region, and possibly to Americans there as well. There are many other things. We have Syrian Christian populations, Druze populations, if HTS is still a radical terrorist like ISIS, that's a threat to many people inside Syria.

You specifically mentioned the Kurds. How do you see the Kurdish position in the new Syria? Do you think the Syrian Kurdistan Region could be established, with the existing challenges?

Well, I certainly hope so. I went through this precise issue in Trump's first term when I was national security advisor and Erdogan of Turkey tried to talk Trump into withdrawing American forces. saying he would handle the problem of terrorism in northeastern Syria when what he really meant was this was an excuse for Turkish military forces to go after the Kurds and others in SDF. Now, we were able to resist that. There's still upwards of 900 Americans there in the region. But I do think quite apart from what HTS does, I think they are at risk from Turks, regular military units coming across the border. We've got other problems, given the prisons holding ISIS fighters, Kurdish forces that have been involved in the anti-ISIS campaign, have been guarding. It's very dangerous. We know that the United States recently bombed ISIS positions in northeastern Syria, presumably weapons dumps, ammunition dumps. So it is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of risk there. And I hope if when President Trump comes in, he can be persuaded, as he was persuaded before, not to withdraw American forces and not to leave our Kurdish allies at risk from either Turkey or HTS.

You mentioned Trump's position. Mr Bolton, in your book "The Room Where It Happened," you criticize Trump and accuse him of betraying the Kurds by withdrawing American troops from some areas which later came under Turkish and allied armed groups’ attacks. Do you think Trump will repeat this in his new administration when he returns to power?

Well, I'm very worried about it. Eventually, we were able to persuade him not to withdraw, but it was very, very close. If he hadn't gone to [Ain] al-Asad Air Base in Iraq on Christmas Day, Christmas night, and heard from the Americans on the ground how important it was to keep our troops and advisors in northeastern Syria, he might have done it. So I'm just worried that if he's not, if he doesn't have the right advice this time, he might carry through on that proposal. So it's very important, I think, for for friends of Kurdistan in the United States to make sure that the incoming Trump advisors know why this is a strategically important area for the Kurds, obviously, but for the United States as well.

Mr Bolton, although I do not want to deviate from the main topic, but this is also a part of it. How do you read these advisers and ministers Trump has proposed for positions in his new cabinet? How do you think they will advise Donald Trump in the new US administration?

Right. Well, I am pretty confident about Marco Rubio, the senator who's been named to be secretary of state, Michael Waltz, the member of Congress who's been named as national security adviser. But I am worried about some of the others. Tulsi Gabbard, who's been named to be director of national intelligence, a position I certainly hope she doesn't end up with, you know, paid a visit to Assad in Syria in 2017 and came out and said, that Syria was not a direct threat to the United States, which it certainly is, and a threat to many of our friends and allies. She said very nice things about Russia, critical things to the United States and Ukraine. And I'm really worried, really, where her Where her views will take her, they're quite extreme, really far removed from anything like the kinds of advisors that should be around Trump. So this is this is for those who want to see the minimal stability that we've got in northeast Syria preserved. This is a very important time to get to there. Members of Congress in the United States, but also to Senator Rubio and Congressman Walz to make the case why this is in American interest to continue doing what we've been doing for over 10 years and stand by the Kurdish allies that helped us defeat ISIS.

So Mr Bolton, let me ask this: with these observations about the people who will work in Donald Trump's new administration, how far do you think America can support the Kurdish cause? Support for Kurds in the west of Kurdistan [Rojava]?

Well, look, I think American interests there remain what they have been for a long time since the alliance to defeat ISIS began. And that is to make sure that ISIS doesn't regroup and come back from the defeat that was inflicted on them. There are still many ISIS fighters. They don't control any territory. There's no caliphate anymore. But in connection with HTS now in control of Damascus and what's left of the Syrian, the Assad government, Syrian military capability, it could be a much bigger threat. It would pose a threat possibly to Jordan, possibly to Israel on the Golan Heights and in coordination with Turkey in northeastern Syria and really across the border. I mean, the good news is that I think the Iranian forces and the Russian forces are likely to be out of the picture entirely. But that doesn't mean that the situation has become stable by any stretch of the imagination. As long as we have an ISIS threat and the possibility, maybe the likelihood that HTS is still ISIS at its core, it means the threat to the Kurds remains and therefore the US should remain.

Alright, let's talk about Turkey, specifically. How can America use its influence over Turkey to ensure Kurdish political rights are protected in the new Syria? Especially, as you know that Donald Trump recently praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a speech.

Well, I'm worried. I mean, Erdogan has manipulated Trump in the past. Fortunately, Trump's advisors in Washington were able to persuade him to do something different. But I think if Erdogan talks to Trump in the near future, he's going to say the same thing he said back in 2018 and 2019, which is, I will provide for security in northern Syria. You can withdraw your forces. I'll make sure everything's OK. That's from the Turkish perspective. That's not from the American perspective or the perspective of the Kurds or others inside Syria. So it'd be worth finding out, for example, how separately HTS can operate from Turkey. If they're under Turkish control, that's one thing. If they want separateness from Turkey and for the rest of Syria, that would be a different thing. This is critical information, at least back here. I don't think we have, but could make a difference..

Well Mr Bolton, you have good expertise in Middle East politics and have been fully aware of the Kurdish situation over the past years. I want to ask you what the Kurds should do to have a voice and representation in Syria's next government.

Well, I think that's very important because that's only something that's satisfactory to all the parties in Syria is going to lead to stability. And what we don't know is whether HTS is serious when they say they want a government in Syria that reflects the population. I mean, one part of it is that government needs to be fully independent of Turkey and that the Kurds have to be given a fair share of the of the confidence in the government that it will pursue their interests as well as others. So HTS and its leaders are saying the right things now, whether they're being honest about it. Sitting here today, I can't tell you. But I think... You know, Kurds in Syria may be in a better position to help us understand exactly where this HTS group is now aiming, what its objectives are. And if we can find that out and get some assessment done, of whether they're credible when they say they've given up terrorism. That's the claim they're making. I don't, don't have any information to prove it. That's for sure. But if we, if we had, more insight into exactly what their objectives are, that would inform what Kurdish people in Syria could do and also what the US might do.

Mr Bolton, let's consider the possibilities. In case of SDF's dissolution and control of the US forces' base areas in eastern and northeastern Syria, can America find a partner like SDF?

No, I don't think so. I mean, if SDF were defeated, I would assume the SNA, the Turkish backed militia, would be the biggest winner. And that simply reinforces Turkish occupation of northeast Syria, maybe even sovereignty over it. So in the alternative case, if ISIS begins a resurgence without the SDF, I don't know what else is available. I mean, Iraq is in a very different position than it was 10 years plus ago when we started the campaign against the ISIS caliphate. So the Kurds have been the most involved, the most loyal throughout the period. And to see them abandoned or defeated would be, I think, catastrophic for stability in Syria, for the Kurds and for the US.

Well, let's look at the broader picture, or look at another side of the picture. After the weakening of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad, do you support further weakening of Iran and its alliance?

Well, I certainly hope so. I mean, this is my sense is history is moving very fast in the Middle East. You saw yesterday that the United States bombed a Houthi target in Sana'a in Yemen, followed by Israeli attacks as well. That's another one of the Iranian terrorist proxies that needs to be defeated. I think Iran is in a very weak position. And I think one positive thing you can say about HDS is they appear determined to cut off the Iranian supply route from Iran, through Iraq, through Syria, then to Hezbollah, which would be another severe blow to Hezbollah from getting weapons and ammunition overland. There's also been extensive press reporting in the region and in the West that inside Iran, recriminations and finger pointing about who's responsible for losing Assad are now spreading into the general population. The Revolutionary Guard generals are in disagreement. The regular military is in disagreement. There's real disarray at the top. But even more importantly, this debate is spreading among the people of Iran generally, and it's fair for them, to ask their government, over decades, you spent tens of billions of dollars building up these terrorist proxies, and what do you have now? Nothing, when this money was not spent on the people of Iran. So I think in the circumstances, the defeats that Iran has suffered in Syria and in Lebanon and Gaza and elsewhere really have contributed to the pressure on the regime. And it's when you have that kind of pressure at the top, when the leadership can fragment, can turn on itself, that the potential for the people who are not armed, really. But for them to be able to affect change in the regime and bring it down is at a very high point. And as I'm sure everybody knows, the Supreme Leader is 85 years old. His health is not good. They don't have a clear succession plan. This is another period of great vulnerability for the regime. So I think we all ought to try and take advantage of it because there won't be lasting peace and stability in the region as long as the Ayatollahs are still in power.

Alright. After Syria, do you predict Israel will take military action against pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq?

Well, I think that's possible. Certainly, US military forces and civilian personnel in Iraq have been exposed to numerous attacks by the Shia militia that are organized and funded by Iran. I think the United States itself in the past year since October the 7, should have done more against these militias in Iraq. I think the real question now for Israel, as the Biden administration gets ready to leave in a month and the Trump administration comes in, is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear weapons program. I would favor that. And I think if they did, it would be another important element of pressure on the regime in Tehran from, again, from the people of Iran who would say, now you've also wasted all this money on the nuclear program. It's just more evidence that as a government, the Ayatollahs have to go.

Alright. Very briefly if you could answer me, Mr Bolton. This will be my last question. If you were to become Trump's National Security Advisor once again, what advice would you give Donald Trump regarding the Kurds in Syria and the Middle East, in general?

Well, you know, in his first term, he made a big thing of defeating the ISIS territorial caliphate. And I would say that the Kurds were critical to that success for Trump and for Trump to let the Kurds down, to abandon the Kurds. would ruin his reputation. That's the way you focus Trump's attention.

Mr John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor, I'm glad you were with me. Thank you for this interview.

Thank you

 

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