US in the Middle East: From policy to war
In the 1970s, American diplomacy under Henry Kissinger (1923–2023) was characterized by realism and a step-by-step policy to achieve American and Israeli objectives. Through this approach, Israel gained significant advantages in the military, settlement, scientific, and economic fields. Kissinger’s approach became prominent and was solidified during negotiations to end the Vietnam War and withdraw United States forces, paving the way for the West's dominance over the socialist bloc in the 1980s. Subsequently, American diplomacy, under Kissinger’s leadership, achieved a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East between Egypt, Syria, and Israel following the October 1973 War.
Despite his shuttle diplomacy and deep knowledge of the region’s history and societies, Kissinger was unable to achieve lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors, although he laid the foundations for it, leading to the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement. Even after the signing of the Oslo Accords between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel, peace in the Middle East remained elusive, as the conflict has evolved through multiple stages since World War I. Wars have continued since the signing of the 1920 Treaty of Sevres in Paris, which formally ended World War I and granted the peoples of the region their right to political self-determination. Despite these attempts, peace has remained challenging to achieve, as expressed by David Fromkin in his book A Peace to End All Peace.
In recent years, following Antony Blinken’s appointment as US Secretary of State in the new administration in 2021, some analysts have attempted to draw comparisons between him and Kissinger to understand the contours of the new US policy. Both are of Jewish origin and their families were victims of Nazism. They have openly expressed their support for Israel and there was speculation that Blinken could match Kissinger’s effectiveness. However, Blinken lacks Kissinger’s comprehensive knowledge of the region and his scholarly depth and he may not possess a distinct political philosophy or thought of his own.
Blinken appears to align closely with the views and policies of the Democratic Party leaders in the United States. Nevertheless, he was deeply involved in the ongoing negotiations between Hamas and Israel following the events of October 7, 2023, actively supporting Israel. From the very first day after the Hamas attack on the Gaza periphery, he declared his visit to Israel was to show support "as a Jew first and as US Secretary of State second." Yet, he failed in his diplomatic and political efforts to broker a peaceful resolution between Hamas and the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance on one side, and Israel on the other. Furthermore, he was unable to secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
Since October 8, 2023, Israel has continued its aggressive response to the Hamas offensive, which, within a year, resulted in a catastrophe for the communities in Gaza. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, over 95 percent of Gaza’s population has been displaced, with the death toll reaching 41,788 and injuries totaling 96,794 since the war began.
Before the first year of the war with Hamas concluded, Israel launched several military surprises on the Lebanese front, starting with the assassinations of key Hezbollah leaders and culminating in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. This included the destruction of Hezbollah's communication devices (pagers), which fractured the group’s power and crippled its communication networks, thereby quickly breaking the backbone of Hezbollah’s strength and cohesion. A significant portion of its firepower was neutralized, leaving the group leaderless and plunging it into disarray. The residents of southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs were terrorized, with the number of displaced people nearing half a million, and approximately 2,000 Lebanese casualties reported as of early October.
While media outlets and analysts highlighted the concept of a “total war” in the Middle East and warned of its potential outbreak, a more systematic and directed war was practically unfolding, expanding methodically, with its strategic outlines and sequential steps becoming clearer month by month. Initially, efforts focused on punishing Hamas and subsequently destroying its capabilities, including the obliteration of Gaza’s infrastructure and urban fabric, leading to the comprehensive dismantling and destruction of Gaza's communities. These efforts were supported by US diplomatic initiatives and the cooperation of moderate Arab countries to contain the war within Gaza's borders. To this end, Secretary Blinken made nearly 20 visits to the region within a year, in addition to hundreds of phone calls with his counterparts in the region and worldwide - an unprecedented level of engagement in American diplomatic history.
The sequence of events and the escalating war, driven exclusively by decisions from Israel and its allies, reveal a plan for a prolonged conflict. In its second year, efforts are likely to focus on isolating Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and potentially eliminating its military strength. The assassination of Hezbollah leaders on October 4 marked a significant military and political surprise, introducing a new dynamic to the war's trajectory and potentially creating a substantial vacuum on the ground, increasing the likelihood of Iran's involvement in the conflict and potentially altering planned strategies.
The bloody war over the past months, with its resulting financial and human losses, can only be understood as the execution of a well-thought-out military, political, and intellectual plan, carried out methodically and using scientifically and technologically calculated steps to achieve grand objectives. It seems the plan is not specifically tied to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his defense minister, nor to Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar or Hezbollah, nor even to the US administration. Instead, it is part of a larger outcome stemming from the compounded crisis of our era, which has erupted in two hotspots: one in Eastern Europe and the other in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel's war can be viewed through the lens of the shift in American diplomacy, which, over the past fifty years, has moved from a step-by-step policy of controlling and leveraging the Cold War to a step-by-step, prolonged war of attrition against its new adversaries. The unfolding events of this controlled war and its developments could themselves constitute a third world war in its calibrated form - one that unfolds in multiple stages and along parallel tracks rather than in a single wave. This is particularly true if events confirm that Israel has made a decision to destroy its enemies, a goal requiring a long period and exceptional efforts, leveraging military super-technology and the most advanced weaponry to restore Israel’s status.
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, Israel appeared as a lone state that had lost its military dominance in the region. This war, methodically conducted, aims to reassert that Israel remains the unparalleled military, intelligence, and technological power in the region.
Azad Ahmed Ali is a Kurdish researcher from Syria and author of dozens of books in Arabic and Kurdish. He received his PhD in the History of Engineering from Aleppo University and was head of Rudaw Research Center from 2014 - 2017. He has served as editor-in-chief of Al-Hiwar magazine since 1993.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
Despite his shuttle diplomacy and deep knowledge of the region’s history and societies, Kissinger was unable to achieve lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors, although he laid the foundations for it, leading to the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement. Even after the signing of the Oslo Accords between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel, peace in the Middle East remained elusive, as the conflict has evolved through multiple stages since World War I. Wars have continued since the signing of the 1920 Treaty of Sevres in Paris, which formally ended World War I and granted the peoples of the region their right to political self-determination. Despite these attempts, peace has remained challenging to achieve, as expressed by David Fromkin in his book A Peace to End All Peace.
In recent years, following Antony Blinken’s appointment as US Secretary of State in the new administration in 2021, some analysts have attempted to draw comparisons between him and Kissinger to understand the contours of the new US policy. Both are of Jewish origin and their families were victims of Nazism. They have openly expressed their support for Israel and there was speculation that Blinken could match Kissinger’s effectiveness. However, Blinken lacks Kissinger’s comprehensive knowledge of the region and his scholarly depth and he may not possess a distinct political philosophy or thought of his own.
Blinken appears to align closely with the views and policies of the Democratic Party leaders in the United States. Nevertheless, he was deeply involved in the ongoing negotiations between Hamas and Israel following the events of October 7, 2023, actively supporting Israel. From the very first day after the Hamas attack on the Gaza periphery, he declared his visit to Israel was to show support "as a Jew first and as US Secretary of State second." Yet, he failed in his diplomatic and political efforts to broker a peaceful resolution between Hamas and the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance on one side, and Israel on the other. Furthermore, he was unable to secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
Since October 8, 2023, Israel has continued its aggressive response to the Hamas offensive, which, within a year, resulted in a catastrophe for the communities in Gaza. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, over 95 percent of Gaza’s population has been displaced, with the death toll reaching 41,788 and injuries totaling 96,794 since the war began.
Before the first year of the war with Hamas concluded, Israel launched several military surprises on the Lebanese front, starting with the assassinations of key Hezbollah leaders and culminating in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. This included the destruction of Hezbollah's communication devices (pagers), which fractured the group’s power and crippled its communication networks, thereby quickly breaking the backbone of Hezbollah’s strength and cohesion. A significant portion of its firepower was neutralized, leaving the group leaderless and plunging it into disarray. The residents of southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs were terrorized, with the number of displaced people nearing half a million, and approximately 2,000 Lebanese casualties reported as of early October.
While media outlets and analysts highlighted the concept of a “total war” in the Middle East and warned of its potential outbreak, a more systematic and directed war was practically unfolding, expanding methodically, with its strategic outlines and sequential steps becoming clearer month by month. Initially, efforts focused on punishing Hamas and subsequently destroying its capabilities, including the obliteration of Gaza’s infrastructure and urban fabric, leading to the comprehensive dismantling and destruction of Gaza's communities. These efforts were supported by US diplomatic initiatives and the cooperation of moderate Arab countries to contain the war within Gaza's borders. To this end, Secretary Blinken made nearly 20 visits to the region within a year, in addition to hundreds of phone calls with his counterparts in the region and worldwide - an unprecedented level of engagement in American diplomatic history.
The sequence of events and the escalating war, driven exclusively by decisions from Israel and its allies, reveal a plan for a prolonged conflict. In its second year, efforts are likely to focus on isolating Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and potentially eliminating its military strength. The assassination of Hezbollah leaders on October 4 marked a significant military and political surprise, introducing a new dynamic to the war's trajectory and potentially creating a substantial vacuum on the ground, increasing the likelihood of Iran's involvement in the conflict and potentially altering planned strategies.
The bloody war over the past months, with its resulting financial and human losses, can only be understood as the execution of a well-thought-out military, political, and intellectual plan, carried out methodically and using scientifically and technologically calculated steps to achieve grand objectives. It seems the plan is not specifically tied to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his defense minister, nor to Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar or Hezbollah, nor even to the US administration. Instead, it is part of a larger outcome stemming from the compounded crisis of our era, which has erupted in two hotspots: one in Eastern Europe and the other in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel's war can be viewed through the lens of the shift in American diplomacy, which, over the past fifty years, has moved from a step-by-step policy of controlling and leveraging the Cold War to a step-by-step, prolonged war of attrition against its new adversaries. The unfolding events of this controlled war and its developments could themselves constitute a third world war in its calibrated form - one that unfolds in multiple stages and along parallel tracks rather than in a single wave. This is particularly true if events confirm that Israel has made a decision to destroy its enemies, a goal requiring a long period and exceptional efforts, leveraging military super-technology and the most advanced weaponry to restore Israel’s status.
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, Israel appeared as a lone state that had lost its military dominance in the region. This war, methodically conducted, aims to reassert that Israel remains the unparalleled military, intelligence, and technological power in the region.
Azad Ahmed Ali is a Kurdish researcher from Syria and author of dozens of books in Arabic and Kurdish. He received his PhD in the History of Engineering from Aleppo University and was head of Rudaw Research Center from 2014 - 2017. He has served as editor-in-chief of Al-Hiwar magazine since 1993.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.