WikiLeaks: PM Barzani Had Warned US of Current Iraq Crisis

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani told US diplomats in 2007 that Shiite and Sunni factions would never reconcile, according to a confidential cable made available by WikiLeaks. 

At a meeting in May 2007, he warned them that a surge in US troops would hold the country together only as long as Americans remained in Iraq, and advised that “the US must be serious about finding a solution other than a strong central government.”  He told diplomats they should encourage federalism and engage Iran for support. 

About Iraqi national reconciliation: “It’s over.”

Barzani emphasized that “Kurdistan will continue to be a part of Iraq,” and explained to diplomats that it was not in the best interest of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to seek independence.

The cable was signed by Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador to Iraq between 2007-2009. A concluding note betrays skepticism about the prime minister’s analysis.  

“The pessimistic assessment of the prospects of Iraqi national reconciliation may well represent his real views. They also represent, we suspect, a hope. He probably sees disorder in the rest of Iraq as advancing his objectives of promoting a political system that would maximize autonomy for the Kurdistan Region, and of convincing the United States to maximize support for the Kurdistan Region as a bastion of stability within Iraq.”

When the cable was written in 2007, Iraq was in the second year of a devastating sectarian civil war that displaced 4 million civilians and killed tens of thousands.   Although violence was quelled by the troop surge and the “Sunni Awakening” councils, which enlisted the support of Sunni tribes in the fight against insurgents, recent events suggest the underlying sectarian conflicts were never truly resolved. 

Shiite militias are carrying out gruesome murders of Sunni civilians in Baghdad with increasing frequency, and a coalition of Sunni militants now controls vast swathes of the country.  Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has resisted calls to step down, and Ayad Allawi, the former Iraqi premier who is popular amongst moderate Sunnis, has called for a boycott of a parliamentary session to form a new government. Few believe a “national unity government” is still possible.

Meanwhile, it is harder and harder to distinguish between Shiite militias, police, and Iraqi Security Forces, and Sunnis in traditionally mixed areas of the country are terrified.  

Viewed in this light, Barzani’s words have a tragic resonance today. US diplomats summarized his take on events:  “the surge in US troops may make a temporary difference, but as soon as they leave, things will return to the status quo ante.”

Having just come from a meeting with top Iranian security officials, Barzani also informed the Americans that “Iranians understand that they need to improve relations with the United States and…Iran fears that the Sunnis will take over the government if the US withdraws from Iraq.”

The cable also reveals that the Kurdish premier openly questioned Iranians about their “problem” with Israel, and told them that the KRG wished to have diplomatic relations with every country, including Israel. If Iraq opens diplomatic relations with Israel, he told the Americans, the KRG would authorize Israel to open a consulate.