What do Iraq’s provincial elections mean for Kirkuk’s Kurds?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - As millions of Iraqis across the country make their way towards the polling stations on Monday to cast their ballots in the first provincial election in a decade, few will be eagerly anticipating the outcome as Kirkuk’s multi-ethnic population who may witness a complete shift in power with Kurdish parties seeking to regain control for the first time since 2017, despite losing the trust of many of the city’s Kurdish voters since.

After Kurdish forces retreated from Kirkuk on October 16, 2017 with little to no resistance in the face of the Iraqi army and Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the city’s Kurdish population was left with an unprecedented feeling of betrayal and overwhelming resentment towards the ruling Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), with many vowing to never renew faith in the two parties in future elections. The effects of this were on display during the 2018 and 2021 Iraqi parliamentary elections as both parties lost thousands of votes compared to previous elections in Kirkuk, and thousands of others chose to sit out the vote altogether.

The Iraqi federal government’s return to power in Kirkuk in 2017 also meant the province would have a non-Kurdish governor for the first time since 2003 - Rakan al-Jabouri, a Sunni politician and head of the Arab coalition has served as Kirkuk’s acting governor in the past six years. 

Jabouri’s tenure as governor has been a topic of debate. He is accused by some of attempting to revive the Ba'athist policy of Arabization to weaken the Kurdish population, but others praise him for breathing life back into previously-neglected Arab neighborhoods.

In the campaigns leading up to the elections, the PUK, KDP, and more recently-established New Generation Movement (NGM) have vowed to remove Jabouri from the position and set a new governor themselves.

“Today, the future of Kirkuk is in your hands. You will decide who will become the governor of Kirkuk,” said PUK leader Bafel Talabani in a speech in Kirkuk in front of tens of thousands of the party’s supporters on Thursday. “In this election, give us power and leave the fighting to us. We will rectify the situation.”

While Kirkuk has historically been a PUK stronghold, the party’s internal disputes have also impacted its influence in the city, as the former co-leader of the party Lahur Talabany continues to command a large following among Kirkuk’s Kurdish population, many of whom refuse to support the party under the sole leadership of Bafel Talabani.

“We must change the administrative map of Kirkuk and restore the rights of the ones entitled to them, and not allow an imposed governor to be governor again,” Liza Falakadin Kakayi, a Kirkuk KDP MP in the Iraqi parliament told the party’s website earlier this month.

“Come the 19th, you [Jabouri] are no longer the governor of Kirkuk. The New Generation will set the governor,” said Himdad Shahin, the head of the NGM bloc for Kirkuk’s provincial council elections, in a speech to hundreds of the party's supporters in the city.

Amendments to the law weaken Kurdish influence in Kirkuk 

The Kurdish parties in Kirkuk failed to join forces for a united front for the provincial elections, but the Kurds are still expected to score the bulk of the vote in Monday’s elections as opposed to the province’s other components. 

Despite a victory at the ballot box, this would still not guarantee the Kurds with the task of electing a governor; neither does it ensure that the position would be filled by a Kurd. This is due to two amendments to the provincial council elections law that apply only to Kirkuk province. 

One amendment in May states that “the results of the elections shall not act as a legal or administrative basis to determine the future of Kirkuk province.”

“Power shall be distributed in a fair representation which guarantees the participation of the [Kirkuk] province’s components regardless of the results of the elections,” reads another amendment.

Ahmad Aziz, a Kurdish researcher and expert on Kirkuk and other disputed territories, said that the amendments aim to further weaken Kurdish influence in the province.

“These two amendments are devised against the Kurds and imposed on them, so that even if the Kurds win the majority, they cannot get their share and rights as much as their proportion, position and presence in Kirkuk, because the Kurds [in Kirkuk], especially after the fall of the Iraqi regime in 2003, have always received 50 percent of the vote or more in the elections alone against the Arabs and Turkmen,” Aziz told Rudaw English on Sunday.

Iraq has held provincial council elections in 2005, 2009, and 2013 but Monday’s vote will mark the first time Kirkuk participates in the process since 2005, which saw the Kurdish parties -then acting as a united front which included both the PUK and the KDP- emerging victorious with nearly 60 percent of the votes.

Despite the initial rage experienced after October 16, 2017, Aziz predicted that Kurds in Kirkuk will still vote for the Kurdish parties in Monday’s elections out of a sense of nationality.

“Because Kurdish citizens have no other good alternative in the face of their ill-wishers, and out of a sense of responsibility towards the land and nation, the majority of people seem to have no choice but to vote for the PUK, KDP and other Kurdish parties, because they know very well that the ill-wishers will succeed otherwise, and The Kurdish presence and stay in Kirkuk and other [disputed] Kurdish areas will be threatened and further cleansed,” said the researcher.

The KDP and PUK are long-time rivals that have a tenuous power-sharing agreement. In addition to their disagreements hindering the functioning of the Kurdish government and parliament, their disputes in Kirkuk and failure to agree on a governor have also been widely regarded as one of the reasons that Jabouri has stayed in the position since 2017.

Aziz said that it was necessary for the two parties to reach an understanding and unite their efforts in Kirkuk if they wish to return the control of the oil-rich city to the hands of the Kurdish component.

“The equation will be much more difficult and complex for the Kurds now and in the future. If the PUK and KDP do not form an alliance and unite their capabilities, it will be difficult for the Kurds to regain their rights and compensate for what they have lost since October 16,” he added.

In July, Kirkuk’s Kurdish parties called for unity under one coalition for the provincial council elections, urging them not to “endanger Kirkuk’s future through dispersion and separate blocs.” The PUK announced its willingness to join the front, but the KDP said it would not be in a bloc with its longtime rival. The PUK went on to join forces with the Kurdistan Communist Party in a coalition named “Kirkuk is Our Strength and Will,” while the KDP opted to participate in the elections on its own. 

Early voting for the provincial council elections were held on Saturday, with more than one million military personnel and internally displaced persons (IDPs) eligible to vote, including over 48,000 IDPs living in camps in the Kurdistan Region.

Iraq’s provincial councils were dissolved in 2019 in response to demands by Tishreen protesters who criticized the system for its failures and for enabling corruption. After several delays, the election date was set for December 18.

The provincial councils were created by the 2005 Iraqi constitution following the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime. They hold significant power, including setting budgets for several key sectors such as education, health, and transport, but are accused of being rife with corruption.