Idlib: Is Turkey just bluffing about war with Assad’s Syria?

As the situation in Syria’s northwest province of Idlib deteriorates further under the Russian-backed regime offensive, Turkey has repeatedly warned it is ready to deploy its military against Bashar al-Assad’s forces if Damascus fails to halt its assault on the last opposition stronghold.  

“An operation in Idlib is imminent,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on February 19. “We are counting down, we are making our final warnings.” 

On February 15, the Turkish president also said the only solution for the future of the province is a prompt regime withdrawal. “Otherwise, we will handle this before the end of February,” he added. 

Seventeen Turkish soldiers have been killed by regime forces in Idlib during the month of February alone. 

Turkey established 12 military observation posts in the province between October 2017 and May 2018 under the Russian-sponsored Astana peace process. That process was supposed to prevent conflict from escalating in Idlib through the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the province. Turkey failed to establish this zone. 

Turkish positions in Idlib have become increasingly vulnerable since last summer. And while this month isn’t the first time the Turkish military has suffered casualties in Idlib at the hands of regime forces, it is certainly the most severe escalation to date. 

Turkey immediately retaliated following the regime attacks on its outposts. After its latest fatality in Idlib on February 22, for example, Turkey’s military destroyed 21 regime targets in the province, according to the Turkish Ministry of National Defence. 

The ongoing regime offensive began in December and has since displaced 900,000 Syrians in the province, according to UN figures, again raising Turkish fears of another mass influx of refugees. Ankara is adamant in its refusal to admit any additional Syrian refugees, with one government source going so far as to declare that Turkey will not even accept five more refugees. 

Erdogan has said he will hold a summit with the leaders of France, Germany, and Russia on March 5 to discuss the crisis. However, it is unclear whether he will take military action, as threatened, before that date or how substantial such military action might be.

“Turkey may well kill a number of Syrian military forces, as it said it did in retaliation for the killing of Turkish military personnel by the Syrian military,” Joshua Landis, Director of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Rudaw English. 

“Turkey is certainly capable of making good on its threats,” he said. “All the same, Turkey is in an unenviable strategic situation.”

This is because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls most of Idlib, is an internationally-designated terrorist organization, given its origins as Syria’s Al-Qaeda offshoot, the infamous Jabhat al-Nusra.  

“It will be very embarrassing for Turkey if it intends to arm and defend these militias, even if the US State Department urges Turkey to take a resolute stand against Russia and the Syrian Arab Army,” Landis said. 

Turkey bolstered its forces along the border with Idlib with additional armor and artillery pieces in response to this latest escalation. Ankara has also requested a US deployment of Patriot air defence missiles on its southern border, which it hopes will give it free rein to retaliate against regime attacks without having to worry about aerial threats. 

However, Russia controls Syria’s airspace, and past Turkish operations in Syria against the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) were only possible thanks to Moscow’s willingness to keep the airspace open for Turkish military aircraft. 

Even if the US deploys Patriots, this doesn’t necessarily mean it will actually target or threaten Russian or even Syrian warplanes in support of any Turkish offensive in Idlib given the grave risk of sparking a wider conflict. 

Without air superiority over Idlib, which is next to impossible so long as Russia continues to give Damascus air cover, Turkey will have little to no room to manoeuvre. 

Retired Turkish admiral Türker Ertürk warned that without air cover in Idlib, Turkey would be sending its troops to their deaths. 

Consequently, Turkey has few workable military options in Idlib. 

More generally, Landis believes Turkey’s days are numbered elsewhere in Syria, including the neighbouring Kurdish enclave of Afrin. 

“Erdogan may have had dreams of annexing large chunks of Syria to Turkey at an earlier stage of the uprising, but those dreams are turning into a nightmare,” he said. 

Ultimately, Turkey “will have to reconcile itself to an Assad victory in the coming months as others have done.”

“After all, Erdogan has repeatedly announced that he supports Syria’s sovereignty and has denounced the notion of partitioning the country,” he said. 

“If these promises mean anything, Turkey will be forced to withdraw from Syrian territory eventually.”