Kurdish natural gas could enhance chances of Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) success
By Darwn Rahim
The Trans Anatolian pipeline is a joint pipeline between Azeri SOCAR and Turkish BOTAS, to carry natural gas from Shah Deniz II through Georgian territory. However, Shah Deniz II is not the only target of TANAP, which has set its sights on Central Asian and Middle Eastern sources as well.
Some have argued that TANAP was proposed to feed the NABUCCO-West pipeline, and that it compensates for the eliminated section of NABUCCO in Turkey. However, the pipeline is positioned to be linked up with the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP), as the Shah Deniz II operators have chosen TAP to carry natural gas to Europe. Looking at the map of TANAP, it appears that the meeting point between TANAP and TAP will be in the Ispala district of Edirne.
Notably, the pipeline is part of Turkey`s strategy to become an energy hub in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey is seeking to enhance its energy security and fulfill its own growing natural gas demands. Turkey might plan to play not only the role of a transit country, but rather to resell the imported natural gas in the long term. But for now there is no doubt that Turkey consumes a part of the natural gas streamed through TANAP to meet the energy demand of the growing Turkish economy.
Kurdistan region-Iraq could be considered as a potential supplier to the pipeline with its 3 to 6 cbm of natural gas. The Kurdistan regional government has constructed a pipeline to the Turkish-Iraqi border, which is currently operational, transporting oil from the Kurdish region to the Turkish border. Basically, this pipeline was supposed to carry natural gas but the failure of NABUCCO and the lack of sufficient investment in the natural gas sector obliged the owners of the pipeline to turn it into an oil pipeline.
However, the strategic value of natural gas led the Kurds to strive for new opportunities to export their natural gas. TANAP could be this opportunity to transport Kurdish natural gas since it is the closest proposed pipeline geographically and has a large capacity of 31 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. It would be difficult for Shah Deniz II to deliver this much, especially considering that the Azeri natural gas field is still developing its operations.
A further advantage of linking TANAP to Kurdish natural gas is that there is no third, transit, country in between. The pumped natural gas can be delivered to TANAP directly without paying transit tariffs, reducing costs and delivery time.
Moreover, the construction of TANAP has already been started. And this is not only fancy designs on paper, like NABUCCO. More importantly, the project has a realistic vision, as the consortium has announced that they are looking forward to connecting their pipeline to other pipelines that carry natural gas to Europe, including the Russian-owned South Stream. Here, the designers of TANAP did not want to appear like an adversary to Russia, in order to avoid Russian competition.
For these reasons, the Kurdistan region should step forward to join the TANAP consortium, which would guarantee a safe, reliable, and sustainable corridor to deliver Kurdish natural gas to regional and international markets.
Furthermore, the KRG is not bound by other supply commitments. The 3-6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas remain untouched. Additionally, the volume of natural gas reserves in the Kurdistan region is higher than Azeri natural gas wealth.
The Kurdistan region is about 570 kilometers from the closest TANAP station in Erzurum. In order to connect with TANAP, a new pipeline would need to be built, stretching from Zakho to Erzurum.
Therefore, Kurdish natural gas could be considered as the most affordable, sufficient, closest and safest supply source for the Trans Anatolian Pipeline.
Darwn Rahim is a PhD candidate at Erfurt University in Germany. He holds an MA in National Security Studies from the German Armed Forces University. He has served as the personal assistant to the Kurdistan Parliament Speaker from May 2014 to October 2015.